摘要：Although cigarette manufacturers were aware of the addictive properties of nicotine as early as1962, the information did not become available to the U.S. public until 1979 when it wasdisclosed by the Surgeon General. This study examines the impact that this information had onthe demand for cigarettes. It is posited that the release of addiction information served to makeconsumers aware of the implications of current consumption levels for future choices. In theabsence of this information, consumers had to rely on their past consumption experience of theaddictive good. That is, we posit that consumer demand was myopic before the release ofinformation in 1979 and switched to a rational form after the dissemination of addictioninformation. The theoretical model also generalizes the rational addiction model to include non-addictive goods. In addition, the model constructed in this paper empirically modifies therational addiction model to allow for the possibility of structural changes in the demand functionwhich may have occurred beginning in 1979. A number of empirically testable restrictions onthe signs and relative magnitudes of the coefficients of the corresponding demand functions arederived from the theoretical model. A state disaggregated annual time series for the U.S.comprised of consumption, price, and income data along with three smuggling indices was usedto empirically test our hypotheses. The data fit the hypothesized model remarkably well, and aswitch from myopic to rational demand in 1979 was observed. Signs and relative magnitudes ofall coefficients were significant and consistent with the theory. We find that the impacts of pastconsumption and price on current consumption decline after the release of addiction information,while future consumption becomes a significant factor only after the release of addictioninformation.
