摘要：The value of improved climate forecasts to winter wheat producers is estimated. Two ElNi.o/Southern Oscillation based forecasting methods are compared. In most regions, a five phaseapproach is more valuable than the more commonly used three phase approach. Economic value anddistributional aspects have implications for producers, policy makers, and meteorologists.
关键词：El Ni.o; Southern Oscillation; Value of Information; Winter Wheat
