摘要：The objective of this paper is to report on the development of a new nonlinear and dynamicsynthesis simulation model capable of reproducing Coase and Fowler's structural findings of the1935-1940 paper series about the pig-cycle. The 'explanation' expounded by Coase and Fowlerfollows a well-integrated economic logic and an exemplary focus on economic structure thatprovides economic insight to foster our understanding of commodity cycles. The model was builtusing structural descriptions of the industry, technical parameters, assumptions and data available inthe original paper series. The simulations results replicated all the findings under the alternativehypotheses ('static price expectation' and time-based price expectation') derived from Coase andFowler's findings. Implications for information and coordination are discussed.
关键词：cycle; coordination; uncertainty; hog production
