摘要：After increasing 2.6 percent in 1997, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for food is expected toincrease 2 to 3 percent in 1998. If the increase is around 2 percent, it may be the smallest priceincrease since the early 1990's, when food prices increased 1.2 percent in 1992 and 2.2 percent in1993.Although 1998 looks like a good year for lower food prices, there are a couple of factors thatmay determine if the increase is closer to 2 or 3 percent. The first unknown is whether thesluggish export market for beef, pork, and poultry continues throughout 1998 and the seconduncertainty is if the current strong El Nino and unsettled weather patterns continue throughspring 1998 in the fresh vegetable growing areas of Florida, California, Arizona, Texas, andMexico. These two factors could have a major effect on the food at home index in 1998 sincethe CPI's for beef, pork and poultry account for 20 percent of the food at home CPI, while fruitsand vegetables account for an additional 20 percent. Another factor that may skew theindividual food category indexes is the re-weighting of all CPI items by the Bureau of LaborStatistics (BLS) this year. After the re-weighting, we are anticipating that the weight for foodaway from home (currently 36.9 percent) will increase in importance by an additional 1 or 2
