摘要：The outlook for U.S.-grown tobacco in the next 5 to 10 years is pessimistic. Since last year's Outlook Conference, unprecedented events have occurred in the tobacco industry. Foremost among those was the signing of the Global Tobacco Settlement between 40 State attorney generals and cigarette manufacturers in June. State lawsuits have been settled for billions of dollars. In addition to the Global Settlement, numerous bills have been submitted to Congress in the course of negotiating a final agreement. Many of the bills address grower concerns about declining demand for tobacco during the post-settlement era. Some form of tobacco legislation, albeit different from the original Global Settlement, is likely to be passed during the 105th Congress. The outlook for tobacco in the upcoming decade is full of uncertainties due to the fluid legal and regulatory environment the industry faces today. The only certainty is the underlying downward trend in U.S. cigarette consumption will be accelerated. This paper examines recent trends and the near-term forecast for cigarettes and touches briefly on other tobacco products, Subsequently, the situation and outlook for flue-cured and burley tobacco leaf will be presented. Finally, some of the recent legislative initiatives and their implications for tobacco growers will be discussed.
