摘要：Earlier 2020 briefs identified annual growth rates for world population of 1.7 percent per yearbased on United Nations projections and per capita income growth in low- and middle-incomeeconomies of 2.9 percent as the major driving forces for growth in agricultural demand. Thesegrowth rates would probably result in a food demand increase of 2.5--3.0 percent, which shouldthen be matched by agricultural production. Over the period 1970--90, production grew 2.3percent annually, but most experts agree that major efforts will be needed to sustain a growth rateof about 2 percent in the future. Though most of this production growth will be realized withinthe regions, some food will have to be imported, and international trade will play an increasinglyimportant role. Drawing on a recent study of European Union (EU) agriculture, this brief focuseson the EU-12 members in 1994 and discusses the consequences of possible further reforms of theEU's Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) on its agriculture and its potential as an agriculturalexporter.
