摘要：While agricultural conditions in the last decade have in some ways been similar to thosecontributing to the boom and bust cycle of the 1970's and 1980's, important differences exist. Among the similarities are the role of agricultural exports, changes in the foreign exchangevalue of the dollar, adverse growing conditions followed by strong increases in production, andsustained increases in farm asset values and farm debt. Important differences include the role ofinterest rates and inflation, more conservative use of leverage by both farmers and lenders inrecent years, and the more limited duration and amplitude of the recent up-cycle. Severalfactors could aggravate the current down-cycle, including some loss of off-farm opportunities,weather, foreign financial crises in importing countries and other exporting countries, and theunknown degree to which lenders may choose to reduce their exposure to creditworthyagricultural borrowers.
