摘要：Annual models for U.S. farm prices for corn and wheat are developed based onmarket factors as well as government agricultural commodity programs. Thepricing relationships utilize a stocks-to-use modeling framework to capture theeffects of market supply and demand factors on price determination. This for-mulation is augmented by factors that represent the changing role of agriculturalpolicies, particularly government price support and stockholding programs. Forwheat, international market effects as well as wheat feed use and related cross-commodity pricing considerations also are included. Model properties andmodel performance measures are presented. Additionally, recent price-forecast-ing applications of the models are discussed. The relatively simple structure ofthe estimated price models and their small data requirements lend themselves touse in price-forecasting applications in conjunction with market analysis of sup-ply and demand conditions. In particular, the models have been implementedinto USDA.s short-term market analysis and long-term baseline projections. Inthese applications, the models provide an analytical framework to forecastprices and a vehicle for making consistency checks among the Department.ssupply, demand, and price forecasts.
