摘要：In early 1996, the peak in the current cycle of cattle inventories coincided with along list of negative factors--negative returns at the farm and feedlot, record-highfeed grain prices, a severe drought in 1995-96, widening farm-retail pricespreads, a low farmers' share of the consumers' Choice beef dollar, and reports ofhigh profits for beefpackers. This confluence created an atmosphere in whichsome producers and members of Congress questioned whether the cattle industrywas adversely affected by high packer concentration and market power. In thisreport, we examine the cattle cycle of the 1990's to determine if there aredifferences from previous cattle cycles and, if so, how and why they are different.We found that values for many variables at the 1996 cyclical peak in cattleinventories, while bad, were not the worst on record. Further, price levels duringthe cattle cycle of the 1990's were better, our models suggest, than they couldhave been, given earlier patterns of price adjustment. Finally, despite the growthof packer concentration, we failed to demonstrate large negative effects of packerconcentration on cattle prices during the 1991-to-present cattle cycle.
关键词：Cattle cycles; price spreads; packer concentration; cattle slaughter;steer and heifer slaughter; and cow slaughter
