摘要：The world cotton situation for the current season, 2001/02, is one of record production and stagnant demand. World stocks are forecast to rise about 5 million bales to nearly 44.0 million, almost half of world consumption. World prices responded by falling to a low of 37 cents in October, the lowest monthly price since August 1986. As a result, the 2002/03 season will start from a position of extreme surplus. The market will attempt to adjust either on the supply side, by constraining production, or on the demand side, by stimulating consumption. If these adjustments are not sufficient to reduce stocks to more normal levels, then prices cannot return to historical averages.
