摘要：The objective of this research is to undertake an ex ante economic analysis of basic scientific research that aims to identify the gene(s) that control apomictic reproduction, with the ultimate aim of transferring the characteristic into commercially important crops. This paper reports very preliminary results, using the introduction of apomixis into rice as a case study. Apomixis is a natural, asexual method of plant reproduction resulting in offspring that are genetically identical to the mother plant. Apomixis promises to revolutionize plant breeding by providing a system for crop improvement that allows any desired variety, including hybrids, to breed true. This ability will make both breeding and seed production more efficient. It offers the opportunity for plant breeders to more readily develop varieties that are specifically adapted to local conditions, using, and thus conserving, greater genetic diversity. Apomixis will also allow resource-poor farmers to replant the seed they produce from locally bred varieties year after year, a strategy not possible with today's commercial hybrid varieties. Global changes in aggregate welfare, resource allocation, production and price levels are calculated using the global economy-wide computable general equilibrium model known as GTAP. Preliminary modeling results suggest that the overall welfare gains associated apomictic rice could be substantial.
