摘要：This paper elaborates on the effects of a rise in energy costs for Dutch glasshouse horticultural producers. The effects on production, bilateral trade and consumption in 25 European countries plus Morocco, Turkey and the Rest of the World, are estimated using a version of the HORTUS partial equilibrium supply and demand model. This model includes 11 sorts of fruit and vegetables, and two categories of ornamental plants and flowers. As energy, especially natural gas, is a major intermediate input in Dutch glasshouse horticulture, it has potentially large impacts on producers and trade. The results indicate that a 10 percent increase in energy prices could cause significant shifts in production and trade flows, as well as some changes in consumption patterns. The effects are larger for more export oriented products, and dependent on the nature of competition on foreign as well as domestic markets.
关键词：energy costs;glasshouse vegetables and flowers;model of international trade
