摘要：This study examines the J-curve phenomenon for the U.S. agricultural trade and compares the effect on agricultural trade relative to U.S. non-agricultural trade. For this purpose, the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model is adopted to estimate bilateral trade data between the United States and her three major trading partners Japan, Canada, and Mexico. We find little evidence of the J-curve for U.S. agricultural trade with Japan, Canada, and Mexico. For non-agricultural trade, on the other hand, the behavior of U.S. trade with industrialized economies such as Japan and Canada follows the J-curve, but not with developing economies such as Mexico.
关键词：agricultural trade;autoregressive distributed lag model;J-curve effect;non-agricultural trade
