摘要：The Doha round negotiations in World Trade Organisation (WTO) have been suspended in the last July due to lack of agreement in agriculture issues. Nevertheless, several leaders of WTO countries have stated publicly their will in reviving WTO talks. Therefore, further negotiations should be expected. Despite the last July failure in obtaining a final text on the negotiating modalities for agriculture, it should be noted that since the launch of Doha round in 2000 significant progress was made in the negotiations. WTO members tabled more generous offers than the initial ones in the round. In fact, during July talks the EU had a active role offering more concessions, such as, 48% reductions of their import tariff (instead of the 39% cuts proposed in its last October's offer), increases in Tariff Quotas, and progressive elimination of export subsidies. The EU recent offers would have had a considerable impact on New Zealand (NZ). The EU is the second largest market for NZ exports. It will be relevant to analyse what impact these changes would have had in the EU and NZ if the latest negotiation offers would have been accepted. Such analysis will help to estimate the cost of failure or can be an important contribution for future WTO negotiations. This paper will assess the implications of the very latest EU offers on market access, domestic support and export competition in EU and NZ Agriculture. The analysis covers livestock sectors of these countries. The model used for this analysis is the LTEM (Lincoln Trade and Environment Model).
