摘要：This paper focuses on the import side of a regional economy quantifying the economic impact of import levels and trade liberalization. An innovation represents the linkage of a regional with a national model by combining two separate Computable General Equilibrium models into one framework. This allows for import price formation in liberalization scenarios on the national level and subsequent incorporation of these nationally simulated prices into the regional model. The regional model is applied to Washington State, one of the most trade dependent states of the U.S, the national model to the U.S. Data for the two identically structured models origin from the IMPLAN database which divides the U.S. and Washington economy into 509 industries. For both models, Monte Carlo techniques are used to mitigate parameter uncertainty inherent in CGE specifications. Two scenarios are simulated that differ in the assumptions about the macroeconomic and factor market adjustment options of the economies.
关键词：Computable General equilibrium;regional modelling;trade liberalization
