摘要：In the context of ever-increasing petroleum prices combined with concerns about climate change, timing of adoption and rate of diffusion of land-based fuels and backstop technologies for transportation use are examined in this paper. A global model of land allocation joined with a Hotelling model has been developed. Using this framework, effects of climate and energy policies on world agricultural and energy markets have been explored. Further, their regional impacts are also analyzed. Whereas mandatory blending bio-fuels have substantial effects on world food prices and do not succeed in curbing down carbon emissions fluxes, carbon targets are expected to speed up date of adoption of backstop technologies. Then, sensitivity scenarios with regards to technological parameters reveal that higher is the rate of technological change, earlier backstop technologies are adopted and lower is the stock of carbon accumulated into the atmosphere. Finally, interplay between land-based fuels and deforestation has been studied. Results show that land-based fuels production speeds up world deforestation and causes substantial carbon emissions due to conversion of forests into agricultural lands.
