摘要：The objective of this paper is to carry out a foresight analysis of the agricultural sector in Castilla y León (Spain) for 2020. The methodology used to build the various scenarios is prospective analysis. We first performed a structural analysis in order to identify the key driving forces that characterize the evolution of the sector in this region (agricultural production, demand for agricultural products and institutional framework). We then carried out a morphological analysis that generated a range of “partial scenarios” from which we finally built four “global scenarios”. These last scenarios characterize the possible trends in the variables of change previously identified. Lastly, the common key parameters of each global scenario were quantified by means of the Delphi method. The characterization of scenarios has a double practical interest. First of all, they can explain the cause-effect relationships of the processes of change that affect agriculture in this region of Spain. Secondly, they are a powerful tool to stimulate an in-depth reflection of how the design and implementation of current agricultural policies will affect the already fragile agricultural sector of Castilla y León. This study thus aims to support decision-making processes at regional level.
