摘要：This paper reviews the application of a scenario for the 2015 agricultural policy and markets for the irrigated agriculture in Europe. Scenarios for irrigated agriculture 2015 are described in detail including Reformed CAP and how biofuel impacts demand. A model for irrigation water demand is applied at the basin level for the Guadalquivir River (Southern Spain). The methodology is based upon residual value of water and it combines budget and farm analysis at municipality level, with the Guadalquivir basin divided at 50 counties where 24 possible crops are selected and adapted specifically to each county yield and costs. The result is a comparative analysis between actual level of water use and value, and 2015 scenario at county level and later aggregated at basin level.
关键词：Irrigated agriculture;Value of water;Scenario analysis
