摘要：Two separate, but interlinked methodological approaches – the modelling approach and non-modelling approach – have been used in a study commissioned by DG Agriculture and Rural Development to understand the impact of Modulation. In these two approaches a range of methodological and analytical tools are used, as follows: Non-modelling Approach • Literature Review; • Case Studies carried out in eight Member States; • Questionnaires carried out by telephone interviews in the 19 Member States, in which case studies were not conducted; • CMEF Indicators – collation of information on output, result and impact indicators for the case study Member States. Modelling Approach: • Budget model, tailor made for the project, provides much of the financial detail that is specific to the study; • A suite of economic models (LEITAP, ESIM, CAPRI and FES) to assess the economic and sectoral impacts; • Dyna-CLUE, a land-use model, allows the results from the economic models to be disaggregated spatially. Some of these tools offer projections, others, such as the case studies, provide insights that are context-specific, whilst others provide information on impacts that can be compared across the EU-27. Individually they do not provide a comprehensive picture of the full range of impacts arising from different modulation scenarios. However, the methodology has been developed in such a way so that the data generated from these different approaches is complimentary and may be triangulated. This means that the results from different methodological tools can be cross-checked and validated.
关键词：rural development policy evaluation;modelling;non-modelling;modulation
