摘要：The BayFish–Bac Lieu model presented in this chapter is a Bayesian model that aims to identify optimal water control regimes and trade-offs between water uses in order to improve management of water-dependent resources in the inland coastal area of Bac Lieu Province, Mekong Delta, Vietnam. The model was developed between 2004 and 2007 and integrated local databases, outputs from the Vietnam River Systems and Plains (VRSAP) model and stakeholder consultations. The model facilitates analyses of the consequences of different water management scenarios (quantitative and qualitative) on rice, fish, crab and shrimp production in the province. However, beyond production, trade-offs between household income, food security or environmental protection were also identified during the model development process. Subsequently, the BayFish–Bac Lieu model allows detailing of: (i) annual production probabilities in the case of a baseline scenario; (ii) outcomes of four different sluice gate operation modes; and (iii) trade-offs between household income, food security and environment outcomes for each scenario. The model shows that through improved shrimp farming and fish production, total household income benefits directly from open sluice gates allowing saline intrusion. However, this has the opposite effect on rice production, and on food security. Results suggest that a suitable compromise involving at least one sluice gate open at all times should be adopted for optimized outcomes.
