摘要：The aim of this study is to compare the conceivable baseline or “business as usual” scenario to four extreme alternative scenarios over the next two decades. The alternative extreme scenarios present the question of “what if” an extreme policy is implemented, what would be the forecasted impact on global food production and how the impact would differ from the plausible scenario. The baseline scenario includes the WTO draft proposal for the Doha Round, the Kyoto Protocol targets to reduce greenhouse gases emissions, and the scheduled reforms on the EU Common Agricultural Policy. The alternative scenarios are prolonged world economic recession, climate change mitigation policies with higher targets, complete removal of only EU agricultural subsidies, and total trade liberalisation for agriculture worldwide. The goal is to foresee the future under plausible and extreme circumstances or policy implementations in a rapidly changing environment for decision makers, interest groups, agribusiness firms and managers in order to support the process of policy and strategy planning.
