摘要：In November 2008 the EU agriculture ministers reached a political agreement on the Health Check of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). The goal of the study, on behalf of the German Federal Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Consumer Protection, is to analyse the impacts of the HC agreement with the help of the Modelling Network of agricultural economics institutes of vTI, as well as with a statistical evaluation of the EU-wide Farm Accountancy Data Network (FADN) in comparison to a baseline in 2015. In the baseline a positive development in the agricultural sector is assumed in the long run. Against this background according to the model results, milk production will expand by about 6 % in Germany after elimination of the milk quota regulations. This implies a decline in the market price of 8 % against the baseline. The expansion of production occurs particularly in high density production areas, so that the regional concentration process continues. Farm income drops on national average by about 4 %, in dairy farms by about 11 %. The accompanying measures in the dairy sector can help alleviate negative income effects on dairy farms if they are used accordingly. The scheduled funding of 300 million Euro obtained from the additional modulation makes a considerable contribution for this purpose.
