摘要：This study explores consumer demand for organic milk products (OMP) and prospective developments in OMP supply chain in Portugal. Consumer demand is approached through a survey accomplished with a stratified sample of 625 consumers from the Porto Metropolitan area (north Portugal), whose population provides a broad representation of Portuguese. Likely future developments in the Portuguese OMP supply chain are established for 2015 time horizon through the Delphi technique, using a panel of 27 qualified experts from different professional backgrounds. Results show inter alia that there are among consumers significant lack of knowledge and conceptual distortion about the organic notion. Cluster analysis has led to the detection of three differentiated consumer groups. Besides, over the coming years Portugal presumably will not be capable to produce sufficient organic milk to satisfy its domestic demand which probably will reach 5% of total milk consumption by 2015 (face to 1.25% in 2008); therefore resorting to importation will continue. Moreover, average willingness to pay for OMP is expected to be by that horizon around 22% more than for conventional counterparts. For the Portuguese OMP industry, improving production efficiency and adopting best management practices appear to be prerequisite for achieving business sustainability and competitiveness.
