摘要：Bosnia Herzegovina (BH) is in the process of joining the World Trade Organization in the near future and the European Union in the medium term. As a net agriculture and food importer, accession will require BH to expose some of its inefficient and sensitive agricultural industries, such as meat and dairy products, to international competition. A bilateral trade model is used to estimate the potentially negative impacts of accession on production and trade in several specific sectors. According to the research results, BH imports are estimated to increase, driven by the livestock products sector. Exports are only marginally affected. A drop in overall customs revenues is expected. BH is expected to experience a small reduction in agricultural sector welfare following accession to the EU or the WTO. The implications for poverty are likely to be negative, especially for meat producers. On the other hand the main beneficiaries will be the consumers. This presumes that lower border prices are passed through to domestic consumers.
