摘要：Pecans (Carya Illinoinensis [Wangenh] K. Koch) are a native food of North America and represent a high economic crop value in the north of Mexico, mainly in the state of Chihuahua, the biggest pecan nut producer in this country. The goal of this study was to evaluate the profitability of pecan orchards in the municipality of Delicias, Chihuahua. Some microeconomic and market information from 2008 were collected from pecan growers and specialists through the technique of Experts' Panel. Standard financial analysis and a Monte Carlo simulation model were used to evaluate the probabilities of risk for net cash income (NCI) and return on capital employed (RCE). The NCI obtained was $277,000 and RC 111.7%, indicating that pecan orchards show high profitability when is produced under medium-technology conditions in the municipality of Delicias, Chihuahua.
关键词：Carya Illinoinensis;production costs;Monte Carlo simulation
