摘要：In Bangladesh, climatic change is likely to impact significantly upon surface and groundwater availability, as well as in other countries. The population of Bangladesh is projected to be double the current 2010 level by 2050. Demand for water will rise with the increasing demand for rice. This paper considers the optimal demand management of irrigation water with stochastic supply under climate change for a 3-year planning horizon. It also identifies the utilization of irrigation water from surface water sources to maximize the expected net social return from rice production. This is done by considering decision on dam release for rice production with reference to climate change. A stochastic dynamic programming model is developed for analyzing the levels and timing of the allocation of surface water for irrigation. The objective is to find the optimal dam release for irrigation which results in the maximum expected present value of the stream of annual net social return from rice production for the 3 years from 2012 to 2014. Net social return in a year consists of the value of rice consumed, measured by consumers’ willingness to pay for rice, less the total cost of rice production. The paper also identifies the need for irrigation infrastructure and determines the optimal investment policies for the adaptation to climate change in Bangladesh agriculture.
