期刊名称：Journal of Contemporary Water Research and Education
出版年度：1998
卷号：112
期号：1
页码：7
出版社：Southern Illinois University Carbondale
摘要：Possible impacts of a greenhouse warming includechanges in precipitation and runoff patterns, sea levelrise, land use and population shifts that may follow fromthese effects, and increased demand for irrigation waterin regions with higher temperatures and reducedprecipitation. Introducing climate change into theplanning process involves a sequence of models andtechniques that result in a cascade of uncertainties.Although climate change is not explicitly cited as anissue in the Principles and Guidelines (US WaterResources Council, 1983) used by designated federalwater resources agencies, their planning and evaluationprinciples and methods are flexible enough to incorporatemany issues that might arise from the prospect of climatechange. Because it can be expensive and time consumingto introduce climate change into planning and projectevaluation and the results may be problematical,discretion and guidance are needed. Climate expectationsare likely to be particularly important for decisionsinvolving long-lived benefits and costs, irreversibilities,and one-time, unique investments. When it is determinedthat climate change should be introduced into waterplanning and project evaluation, the IntergovernmentalPanel on Climate Change’s IPCC Technical Guidelinesfor Assessing Climate Change Impacts and Adaptations(Carter et al., 1994) provide a framework and detailedapproach for assessing the potential impacts andevaluating adaptation strategies.
