摘要：In order to alleviate the grim situation of groundwater overexploitation in Hebei Province, using the expert interview method and law of large numbers, we predict the water consumption and amount of water saving concerning 7 different crops in 3 schemes ("low", "medium", "high") under economical irrigation in different ecological areas during the period 2011—2015, and the period 2016—2020 in Hebei Province. (i) During the period 2011—2015, in "low" scheme, the water consumption will be about 12.9 billion m³, and the amount of water saving is about 1.4 billion m³; in "medium" scheme, the water consumption will be about 12.2 billion m³, and the amount of water saving will be about 2.1 billion m³; in "high" scheme, the water consumption will be about 11.5 billion m³, and the amount of water saving will be 2.8 billion m³. (ii) During the period 2016—2020, in "low" scheme, the water consumption will be about 12.3 billion m³, and the amount of water saving will be about 0.7 billion m³; in "medium" scheme, the water consumption will be about 11.2 billion m³, and the amount of water saving will be about 1 billion m³; in "high" scheme, the water consumption will be about 10.2 billion m³, and the amount of water saving will be 1.2 billion m³. We can find that each "medium" scheme is ideal, having the greatest feasibility, which can provide a theoretical basis for solving some problems in Hebei Province in the next 5 to 10 years, such as serious water resources shortage and overexploitation.
关键词：Efficient water use;Water use efficiency;Water-saving potential;Prediction research;Hebei Province
