摘要：The expansion of the EU biofuel sector in recent years has led to speculation that the linkages between the oil and agricultural markets has strengthened and resulted in increased transmission of price volatility. This study uses the FAPRI European modelling system, which includes a UK model, to explore the energy-biofuel-agricultural market linkages in the EU. The complete modelling system is a dynamic, partial equilibrium, multi-commodity model of the EU agriculture and liquid biofuel for transportation sectors. A stochastic approach is used in which the modelling system is simulated 500 times under different paths of oil prices and world commodity prices. This stochastic approach provides a means to analyse the impact of alternative crude oil prices on the biofuel and agricultural sectors. The model simulations demonstrate the complex interactions between the different sectors.
