摘要：In Hesse, a federal state in central Germany, the average air temperature of the period 1991 to 2009 was by 0.9°C higher compared to that of 1961 to 1990. A further rise in air temperature of up to 3.7°C compared to the reference period 1971 to 2000 is expected until the end of the twenty-first century. This may affect the beginning and length of phenological stages of plants. Hence, this project should analyse and model spatiotemporal trends of plant phenology as being an indicator for climate change-related biological effects. Meteorological data together with data on 35 phenological phases of plants indicating different phenological seasons and observed at 6,500 sites in Germany (553 in Hesse) between 1961 and 2009 were analysed in a GIS. Estimations on phenological developments in the future periods 2031 to 2060 and 2071 to 2100 were based on data from four regional climate models. Thirty-one out of 35 phases started earlier in the years 1991 to 2009 compared with 1961 to 1990. These shifts were stronger in Hesse (8 days) than in Germany (6 days). As winter phases tend to shift towards the end of the year, a prolongation of the vegetation period of up to 3 weeks was observed. More than 70% of the phases were correlated with air temperature by r ≥ 0.5, more than 50% even by r ≥ 0.7. Since the 1990s, phenological shifts and regional differences in phase onsets amplified. In many cases, the shifts between 2071 to 2100 and 1961 to 1990 are expected to be at least twice as high as those between 1991 to 2009 and 1961 to 1990. The presented approach allows revealing statistical relationships between air temperatures and phenological onsets. Thus, shifts in plant phenology are an appropriate bioindicator to map early signs of ecosystem transitions under climate change. The phenological records allow estimating future trends of plant phenological development. Using phenological maps as presented in this article, efficient adaption strategies may be planned and implemented in terms of, e.g. adjusting delineation, shape and allocation of protected areas.
