期刊名称：Zagreb International Review of Economics and Business
印刷版ISSN：1331-5609
出版年度：2014
卷号：17
期号：SCI
页码：31-48
语种：English
出版社：Ekonomski fakultet Sveučilišta u Zagrebu
摘要：Five years following the occurrence of the global economic and financial crisis, Croatia is one of the few countries in the region whose export has still not recovered to the pre-crisis level. In order to properly account for international linkages and possible crisis spillover effects, a Global Vector AutoRegressive (GVAR) model is defined. The GVAR model is a consistent global macroeconometric model which enables modelling interactions between Croatia and a set of Central and Southeast European (CSEE) countries. The empirical analysis reveals that the domestic variables are the main factor explaining Croatian export dynamics in the short run. However, in the long run, the main determinants of Croatian export are the US and German real exchange rates. These findings provide evidence in favour of low competitiveness of Croatian export.
关键词：Global VAR; GFEVD; international trade; export; Croatia
