期刊名称：Asian Journal of Business and Management Sciences
电子版ISSN：2047-2528
出版年度：2014
卷号：3
期号：09
页码：08-14
出版社：Society for Business Research Promotion
摘要：Demand forecasting is crucial in supporting the decisions in the management and control of operations. The prediction tools will be more efficient so how much better is the choice of method. The forecast of production of cane sugar exerts great influence on the results of producing sugar and ethanol fuel companies working with fluctuations in demand. In Brazil, sugar cane stands out among the major crops as the acreage and volume differentiating from other producers of sugar and ethanol fuel nations. In foreign markets, the share of exports of products from the processing of sugar cane grown significantly becoming the leading exporter. Thus, it becomes important to study the functioning of the Brazilian sugarcane industry both in the domestic context and the international context. This paper deals with forecasting techniques using time series to assist administrators of this sector in decision making. In particular, the analyzes are made with the use of statistical models of projected trends in which we can highlight the regression models, moving averages, simple smoothing method of Holt and Winters. Analyzing the results, it was observed that the method of Holt, best captures the seasonality of this market. Full Text
