摘要：This paper analyses the sequence of changes in land used for milk production on dairy farms in the period before, during, and towards the abolishment of milk quotas. Using a unique dataset comprising farm level data of the Netherlands between 1971 and 2011 we estimate two duration models, analysing the time period between changes in case of increases and decreases in dairy land use. The impact of milk quota, socio-economic and production variables on the likelihood of a farm changing his land use are assessed. Results show that quota abolishment will lead to a more dynamic dairy sector.
关键词：Duration models;Panel data;Milk quota;Land use change;CAP reform
