摘要：Agricultural water is directly related with grain production security. This article analyzes how to allocate the water resources in terms of grain production. First , for the whole country, we established the VAR mathematical model with the data of 1983 to 2008 to test the relationships between the total amount of water and the agriculture production and forecast the water consumption in 2020. Then focusing on the major grain producing areas, we examine the main index and the pressure index, from which we find that the amount of agricultural water in major areas fail to satisfy the demand of production, and that unbalanced development exists between different areas with several areas especially serious. At last, we point out that, to ensure the security of agriculture production and the sustainable utilization of water resources, the government should take measures not only to prevent water pollution and reduce water consumption, but also to improve inter-basin water transfer planning.
