摘要：A rather unique panel tracking more than 3300 individuals from households in rural Kagera, Tanzania during 1991/4-2010 shows that about 1 out of 2 individuals/households who exited poverty did so by transitioning out of agriculture into the rural nonfarm economy or secondary towns. Only 1 out of 7 exited poverty by migrating to the big cities, even though those moving to the city experienced on average faster consumption growth. Further analysis of a much larger cross-country panel of 51 developing countries cannot reject that rural diversification and secondary town development lead to more inclusive growth patterns than metropolitization. Indications are that this follows because more of the poor find their way to the rural nonfarm economy and secondary towns, than to distant cities. The development discourse would benefit from shifting beyond the rural-urban dichotomy and focusing more instead on how best to urbanize and develop its rural nonfarm economy and secondary towns.
