摘要：This paper examines the job creation potential of the four main growth targets in the Food Harvest 2020(FH2020), namely the growth targets for milk, beef, sheep and pigs. The agri-food sector is predominantly rural based and growth in this sector is important for the economy as a whole. As well as the direct employment that would be created from an increase in activity in the agriculture sector, there would be a knock on benefit for the rest of the economy arising out of the linkages between agriculture and other economic sectors, and the spending of those employed in the agri-food sector on goods and services produced in the economy. Commonly this is described as the multiplier impact. Two scenarios are simulated using different assumptions to see how employment will respond to increased output: Scenario 1 shows the effects of the four shocks using average employment intensities; Scenario 2 shows the effects of the four shocks using the marginal employment intensities calculated using an econometric model to capture the unobserved characteristics of the four main agricultural sectors over time. The results of the second scenario are believed to be more accurate in simulating the employment potential of the FH2020 targets.
