摘要：Climate change issues have since the fairly recent past, attracted enormous debate around the globe. Malaysia like other developing countries faces critical issues on global warming which had changed the local climate; threatening agricultural activities. This climatic anomaly is manifested in temperature and rainfall variability. It is envisaged to challenge the sustainability of food production in the future. The purpose of this study is to investigate the economic impact of these indicators of climate change on paddy production in Malaysia. This is in respect of its adverse effect on farmers productivity. Using annual data spanning from 1980-2010, a time-series regression based on a modified Ricardian model was employed to assess the impact. In addition, the Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies (PRECIS), Regional Climate Modeling (RCM) system was applied to estimate the potential impact of long-term changes in climate on paddy net revenue. Result shows that temperature as well as rainfall variability had a negative impact on paddy production. The total marginal increase in temperature and rainfall was found to account for an estimated loss in paddy production to the tune of RM312.20. Besides, projections based on regional climate modeling system (PRECIS) shows that the loss in paddy production due to climate change will reach RM 7608.90 (168.88%) by the year 2099. Hence, this study recommends the need for adaptation and mitigation strategies to minimize these losses.
