期刊名称：The International Journal of Applied Economics and Finance
印刷版ISSN：1991-0886
电子版ISSN：2077-2149
出版年度：2012
卷号：6
期号：2
页码：64-73
DOI：10.3923/ijaef.2012.64.73
出版社：Asian Network for Scientific Information
摘要：In an effort to distinguish the short-run response (the J-curve effect) of currency depreciation from its long-run response on trade balance, the current study employs a model which relates the trade balance to the exchange rate directly along with other variables. This study considers 67 industries (2-digit and 3-digit SITC classifications) and investigates the short-run (J-curve pattern) and the long-run effects of the real depreciation ringgit/yen on the trade balance of each industry. Using annual import and export data over the period of 1974-2009, this study employs the bounds testing approach to cointegration and error-correction modelling. The empirical results indicate that whilst depreciation of ringgit has short-run significant effects on the trade balance in majority of the industries, the short-run effects translate into the favorable long-run effects only in 24 of the 67 industries. However, in only 22 industries empirical support for the J-Curve is established.
