摘要：The objective of this research is to give insights into the production, income and environmental effects of the introduction of an EU flat rate for Dutch agriculture. For this purpose, a detailed agri-environmental programming model for Dutch agriculture is used. Results of the EU flat rate scenario are compared to a reference scenario that describes agricultural production in the Netherlands in 2020. Results show that total gross margin in Dutch agriculture decreases because of the EU flat rate with 7%. The supply of starch potatoes and cow milk decreases most. Production of seed and consumption potatoes, vegetables and intensive livestock products increases slightly. This is largely due to a shift of farm payments from milk and starch potatoes production to arable crops and vegetable production. It was found that including risk aversion of income volatility amplifies these effects. The flat rate decreases the total emissions of nutrients to the environment from agricultural production.
