摘要：This paper aims to ex-ante assess the micro-economic impacts of current EU biofuel policies on the French arable sector using an agricultural supply model (ASMMA) coupled with a computable general equilibrium model (MIRAGE-BioF). The application of this modelling framework confirms that biofuel policies would significantly affect the EU agricultural market, with price increase by 2020 as high as +40% in the case of rapeseed compared with a status quo at 2008 level. This would strongly impact land use and production of first-generation feedstock crops in France (rapeseed, cereals and sugar beets). The highest percentage increase would be in land dedicated to rapeseed (+50%), likely to occur in regions with a low initial rapeseed land share. This increase would boost farm income of most arable farms (+10% on average); however, the environment would face increase pressure from agricultural production with more use of pesticide (+5%) and increase in N2O emissions (+2.5%).
