摘要：Figures See all figures Author Samuel Somot Météo-France/Centre national de recherches météorologiques, Groupe de modélisation grande échelle, Équipe ARPEGE-Climat (GMGEC/EAC), 42, avenue G. Coriolis, 31057 Toulouse cedex 1 Key words: climate, environment monitoring, France, greenhouse effect, models, theoretical, natural disasters Page(s) : 89-94 Published in: 2005 Because studies of the regional impact of climate change need higher spatial resolution than that obtained in standard global climate change scenarios, developing regional scenarios from models is a crucial goal for the climate modelling community. The zoom capacity of ARPEGE-Climat, the Météo-France climate model, allows use of scenarios with a horizontal resolution of about 50 km over France and the Mediterranean basin. An IPCC-A2 scenario for the end of the 21st century in France shows higher temperatures in each season and more winter and less summer precipitation than now. Tuning the modelled statistical distributions to observed temperature and precipitation allows us to study changes in the frequency of extreme events between today’s climate and that at the end of century. The frequency of very hot days in summer will increase. In particular, the frequency of days with a maximum temperature above 35°C will be multiplied by a factor of 10, on average. In our scenario, the Toulouse area and Provence might see one quarter of their summer days with a maximum temperature above 35°C.
