摘要：Figures See all figures Authors Antoinette Ludwig , Dominique Bicout , Karine Chalvet-Monfray , Philippe Sabatier Unité Biomathématiques et épidémiologie, Laboratoire Environnement et prévision pour la santé des populations/Techniques de l’imagerie, de la modélisation et de la cognation (EPSP – TIMC), École nationale vétérinaire de Lyon, 1, avenue Bourgelat, BP 83, 69280 Marcy L’Étoile France Key words: culex, disease outbreaks, humidity, insect vectors, linear models, mediterranean region, temperature, weather, West Nile fever Page(s) : 109-13 Published in: 2005 In 2000, the South of France witnesses a West Nile outbreak in Camargue, where the mosquito Culex modestus is the potential vector. Using field data of mosquito collected by Mouchet et al. in 1966 at La Capelière, we have developed a model to describe Culex modestus aggressiveness as a function of meteorological data. We found that Culex modestus aggressiveness is positively correlated with the temperature, humidity coupled to rainfall and sunshine, all averaged within a time interval. Next, the meteorological data from Météo-France were used in this model to simulate Culex modestus aggressiveness for the years 1999 (before the outbreak) and 2000. It appears from the analysis that the years 1999 and 2000 were characterised by this species’ aggressiveness being higher than average by 1 to 3 orders of magnitude with aggressiveness profiles shifted by about 2 weeks toward the end of the summer.
关键词：culex; disease outbreaks; humidity; insect vectors; linear models; mediterranean region; temperature; weather; West Nile fever
