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  • 标题:Réussites et échecs d’une règle simple de prévision des infestations du Criquet pèlerin au Sahel
  • 本地全文:下载
  • 作者:Johnson Holt ; Robert A. Cheke
  • 期刊名称:Science et changements planétaires / Sécheresse
  • 印刷版ISSN:1147-7806
  • 电子版ISSN:1777-5922
  • 出版年度:1996
  • 卷号:7
  • 期号:2
  • 页码:151-154
  • 出版社:John Libbey Eurotext
  • 摘要:Authors Johnson Holt , Robert A. Cheke Naturel Resources Institute, Central Avenue, Chatham Maritime, Chatham, Kent ME4 4TB, Royaume-Uni Page(s) : 151-4 Published in: 1996 Significant correlations were found between the numbers of territories in the West Africa region infested with swarms of the desert locust ( Schistocerca gregaria) and a) the number in the preceding year, b) the rainfall in the current year and c) the rainfall in the previous year, when the effects of a), b) and c) were examined separately. However, multiple regression suggested that once a) had been accounted for, b) and c) did not make significant contributions to the amount of variance explained. Using the method of genetic algorithms, the data were re-analysed to provide simple rules relating the numbers of territories with swarms reaching 5 or more to a), b) and c). The successes and failures of the rules generated by the genetic algorithms are briefly discussed.
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