期刊名称：Science et changements planétaires / Sécheresse
印刷版ISSN：1147-7806
电子版ISSN：1777-5922
出版年度：1993
卷号：4
期号：2
页码：123-129
出版社：John Libbey Eurotext
摘要：Authors Carmelo Conesa Garcia , Javier Martin-Vide Université de Murcia, Campus de la Merced, 30001 Murcia, Espagne, Université de Barcelone, 08028 Barcelone, Espagne. Page(s) : 123-9 Published in: 1993 The south-eastern regions of Spain, from Catalunya to Andalusia, undergo frequent, and ofter long, periods of no rain, especially in the summer. To try and forecast the occurence and duration of these - and this would be a great help in water-resource management and agricultural decision-making - the validity of statistical calculation based on 1st-, 2nd-, 3rd- order Markov chains was tested. After a demonstration of applying this method to past phenomena of drought covering the period 1941 to 1970, the paper concludes that results calculated using a Markov chain, despire their complexity, were not noticeably better thant those achieved by farmers with their own empirical methods. The mediocre results were attributed to not separating summer droughts from winter droughts, leading, in statistical terms, to two populations of very different characteristics being aggregated.
