期刊名称：Science et changements planétaires / Sécheresse
印刷版ISSN：1147-7806
电子版ISSN：1777-5922
出版年度：2013
卷号：24
期号：1
页码：57-63
DOI：10.1684/sec.2013.0371
出版社：John Libbey Eurotext
摘要：Figures See all figures Authors Abdoulaye Diarra , Bruno Barbier , Hamma Yacouba Institut international d’ingénierie de l’eau et de l’environnement (2iE) Rue de la Science 01 BP 594 Ouagadougou 01 Burkina Faso Key words: agriculture, Burkina Faso, climate change, climate information, drought, risk, Sahel DOI : 10.1684/sec.2013.0371 Page(s) : 57-63 Published in: 2013 The purpose of this paper is to study the response of Sahelian farmers faced with the increasingly frequent droughts envisaged by the IPCC, to assess their losses and, finally, to consider how to address, at least partially, the negative effects. Using a stochastic model, we have shown that the impact of increased frequency of bad years of production is very expensive for Sahelian farmers. When the risk of bad years is multiplied by 3.5, the farmer sees his wealth drop by 34% from its initial level, despite a reorganization of crop systems to hopefully make them more resistant to drought. We show that farmers are willing to pay 21% of their wealth (44,862 CFA francs per year) to avoid all forms of risk in the performance of their agricultural activities. They are willing to finance technology such as irrigation to ensure a certain level of income. We then show that information on the risk of bad years, given to farmers early enough, can significantly limit their loss of wealth and reduction in food supplies.
