摘要：Se analiza el riesgo de inundación por tsunami para un evento extremo en la localidad de Tubul (37ºS), Región del Biobío. Para el análisis de peligrosidad se determinaron tres escenarios asociados a los eventos tsunamigénicos locales de 1835 y 2010 a los cuales se aplicó modelamiento numérico. Se incluyó el evento de 1877 para determinar los efectos de un tsunami lejano. Se analizó la vulnerabilidad en sus dimensiones física, socioeconómica y educativa. El tsunami de 1835 se determinó como evento extremo, con alturas de inundación de 10 m y cota de inundación de 10 m. Se establecieron niveles de vulnerabilidad altos y medios explicados por la defi ciente materialidad de la vivienda y perfi l socioeconómico vulnerable de la población, bajos niveles de escolaridad y reacción frente a estos eventos. El riesgo natural obtenido se ubicó en niveles altos para toda la localidad. Se contrastan los resultados con el Plan de Reconstrucción vigente.
其他摘要：The risk of tsunami inundation is analyzed for an extreme event in the town of Tubul (37°S), Bio-Bio Region. Three scenarios were identifi ed for risk assessment, in all of which numerical simulation was applied. Two of the three scenarios were local tsunamis, the events of 1835 and 2010, and the event of 1877 was included to determine the effects of a far fi eld tsunami. The tsunami of 1835 was determined as an extreme event, which gave inundation heights of 10m and run-up of 10m. Vulnerability was analyzed from physical, socioeconomic and educational points of views. Two levels of vulnerability were defi ned, namely medium and high. These levels were selected based on the poor housing materials, the vulnerable socioeconomic profi les of the population, low educational levels and the population's reactions to these tsunami events. The results show that natural risk is obtained at the high level in the whole town. These results were also compared with the current Reconstruction Plan.
