摘要：A recente situación de inestabilidade financeira e a súa transmisión á economía pro-dutiva, ademais de revelar o carácter bidireccional da relación entre variables financeiras e reais, deixa importantes interrogantes sobre a capacidade que ten o Banco Central Europeo (BCE) para instrumentar unha política monetaria eficaz nunha área tan heteroxénea como a eu-rozona. Esta constatación resulta de especial relevancia cando se trata de explicar a interrela-ción entre os tipos de xuro de referencia da política monetaria, o comportamento do crédito, a xeración de burbullas de prezos no mercado inmobiliario e a evolución da actividade económica real. Nesta liña, o obxectivo principal deste artigo é afondar na natureza da interrelación entre os mercados financeiros e inmobiliarios, así como sobre os factores que condicionan as posibi-lidades do BCE para contribuír á estabilidade da eurozona mediante a instrumentación da polí-tica monetaria. Para iso estímase un modelo VAR que permite obter evidencia acerca da inte-rrelación entre o prezo da vivenda, o tipo de xuro, o crédito, a inflación e o PIB para unha mos-tra de cinco países que forman parte da eurozona (España, Irlanda, Austria, Francia e Portu-gal).
其他摘要：The recent financial instability and its transmission to the productive economy, as well as revealing the bidirectional nature of the relationship between financial and real variables, pro-vides important questions about the ability of the European Central Bank to implement an effec-tive monetary policy in an area as heterogeneous as the Eurozone. This finding is especially re-levant when it comes to explaining the relationship between reference interest rates of monetary policy, the behavior of credit, the generation of price bubbles in the housing market and the evo-lution of real economic activity. Thereby, the main objective of this paper is to explore into the nature of the relationship between financial and real estate markets and the factors that deter-mine the possibilities of the ECB to contribute to the stability of the Eurozone through the imple-mentation of monetary policy. To do this we estimate a VAR model that allows to obtain eviden-ce about the relationship between housing prices, interest rate, credit, inflation and GDP for a sample of five countries that form part of the Eurozone (Spain, Ireland, Austria, France and Por-tugal).
关键词：Mercado inmobiliario; Inestabilidade financeira; Unión monetaria; Política mo-netaria; Banco Central Europeo;Real estate market; Financial instability; Monetary union; Monetary policy; Euro-pean Central Bank
