摘要：This paper reviews the application of a scenario for the 2015 agricultural policy and markets for the irrigated agriculture in Europe. Scenarios for irrigated agriculture 2015 are also described in detail including Reformed CAP and biomass demand. It is applied at the basin level for the Guadalquivir River in southern Spain. The methodology is based upon residual value of water and it combines budget and farm analysis at municipality level, with the Guadalquivir basin divided at 50 ‘comarcas’; in each of them 24 possible crops are selected with specific ‘comarca’ data bases. The 2015 scenario studies the present level of water use and value, and makes an analysis for 2015.This model allows the knowledge of water value and irrigated agriculture at ‘comarca’ level and ‘aggregated basin level’.
关键词：Water pricing;Irrigated agriculture;Value of water;Scenario analysis
