摘要：Infrastructure systems and services (ISS) are vulnerable to changes in climate. This paper reports on a study of the impact of gradual climate changes on ISS in Hamilton City, New Zealand. This study is unique in that it is the first of its kind to be applied to New Zealand ISS. This study also considers a broader range of ISS than most other climate change studies recently conducted. Using historical climate data and four climate change scenarios, we modelled the impact of climate change on water supply and quality, transport, energy demand, public health and air quality. Our analysis reveals that many of Hamilton City's infrastructure sectors demonstrated greater responsiveness to population changes than changes in gradual climate change. Any future planning decisions should be sensitive to climate change, but not driven by it (even though that may be fashionable to do so). We find there is considerable scope for extending this analysis. First, there is a need for local infrastructure managers to improve the coverage of the data needed for this kind of study. Second, any future study of this kind must focus on daily (rather than monthly) time steps and extreme (as well as gradual) climate changes.
