摘要：In this study, we estimated catfish feed and farm price reduced form equations. Of particular importance was the impact of the recent increase in grain prices induced by ethanol production on feed cost and farm prices. This relationship was examined using an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model. Results show that a 1% increase in corn prices caused a 0.134% and 0.263% increase in feed prices in the short- and long-run, respectively. Catfish farm prices increased by 0.106% (short-run) and 0.211% (long-run) given a 1% increase in feed prices. Between 2004 and 2008, corn prices increased from $2 to $6 per bushels. Taheripour and Tyner (2008) state that of the total increase, 25% was due to US ethanol subsidies and 75% was due to the increase in the price of crude oil. Given the $1 increase in corn prices (50%), this should result in a feed price increase of 13% and a farm price increase of 2.7% in the long-run. Park and Fortenbery (2007) found that for every percentage increase in ethanol production, corn prices increased by 0.16 % in the short run. From this we conclude that a 100% increase in ethanol production will cause catfish feed prices to increase by 4.21% in the long run, and catfish farm prices to increase by 0.89%.
关键词：catfish;price;catfish feed;ethanol;autoregressive distributed lag model;ARDL
